The project presents an innovative research approach for coral reef management under climate stress, specifically focusing on the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). It introduces a novel methodology that leverages tailored climate model outputs from the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble (CESM2-LE) to produce site-specific climate forecasts. These forecasts are integrated with social science methods to engage with environmental managers through narrative scenarios, facilitating a participatory, collaborative form of adaptive governance. By linking detailed ecosystem response models with direct manager engagement, the study offers a practical, scalable model for decision-makers to formulate responsive policies tailored to local conditions. This method not only bridges the gap between scientific data and policy implementation but also addresses the need for more precise and actionable climate projections in environmental management, particularly in managing highly vulnerable coral reefs.

Read the full paper in the Journal of Environmental Management HERE